CN Live! discusses Donald Trump’s victory with Margaret Kimberley, John Kiriakou, Gerald Celente, Niko House, Richard Wolff and Patrick Lawrence.
With its All-Star cast, CN Live! discussed the implications of Trump’s victory, abroad in Ukraine, the Middle East, China and Europe; the role of the Gaza genocide and the Ukraine war in the voting; the impact on the U.S. and world economy; how the Democrats will react this time to defeat, how they could have fielded a better candidate, what is the party’s future and can it continue to depend upon the Black and Latino vote.
Hosts: Elizabeth Vos and Joe Lauria. Producer: Cathy Vogan.
Re the dimming of American awareness discussed by Patrick Lawrence and Niko House, when Clinton signed the 1996 Telecom Act into law – which removed media ownership caps – the media monopoly quickly consolidated down to five or six megacorporations, each with immense holdings across the entire spectrum. Allowable topics and opinions diminished considerably.
The title “US Electon: What’s Next?” reminds me of a line from Jack Kerouac:
“Whither goest thou America? Whither goest thou, in thy shiny black car in the night?”
Thank you for the great conversation!
I want to speak a little bit more about 3rd parties.
The 3rd parties are scoring well within the expected range of 3rd parties in first-past-the-post systems in which either of the top-two parties is thought of as having a fair chance of winning. One of your own guests on this program expected Harris to win. The polling was very close.
First-past-the-post systems are vacuum-driven. Abraham Lincoln could win in a brand new third party BECAUSE the Whigs could no longer win – vacuum driven system. Conversely, when many people think, as your guest did, that the 2nd party CAN win, then the 3rd party cannot, and it scores even lower than normal.
This is due to the way people strategize in first-past-the-post systems. The vast majority of democratic voters are strategic, lesser-evil, voters. A recent Data for Progress poll showed that 70% of democrats favor the arms embargo. Harris couldn’t have gotten as many votes as she did get if a large portion of that 70% were not strategic, lesser-evil, voters. As a supporter of Jill Stein and Butch Ware, I found that every single person who tried to dissuade me from supporting them liked their platform but told me she couldn’t win. Those people are all strategic, lesser-evil voters.
So, being that so many voters are strategic voters, let’s look at how that works. What motivates them is a chance of winning, or odds.
Odds move exponentially in relation to polling.
So we’re never as far off from the tipping point as one might think.
One day, earlier this year illustrates this point. In one day this past summer Jill Stein’s polling grew at a rate of 36%. All she had to do was not show up for the Joe-Donny debate she wasn’t invited to.
Why did it grow so quickly, shooting up to 4.1% overnight?
People didn’t think Joe could win. Then Kamala took over and even one of your guests thought she could win as of Tuesday morning. The general idea was that she had a good chance, so Jill’s polling sank back down.
The fact that all the top dems converged to ditch Joe strikes me as strong evidence that they all thought he wouldn’t win.
Imagine what happens when you arrive at election day and everyone knows that your candidate can’t win. Then tens of millions of strategic votes are NOT STRATEGIC.
That’s the tipping point.
So, when I hear the speculation in this program about what will rise out of the ashes, I want to add that I do NOT think that the Green Party should be ruled out as one to possibly rise out of these ashes.
It’s a vacuum-driven system but you have to see the vacuum. Now the whole country can.
One of your guests said that he thinks it will be a New Democratic Party that will rise out of the ashes. Then, almost in the same breath, he called them, and rightfully so, a criminal organization. How can a criminal syndicate like the Democratic Party ever truly represent the people. Why not just vote for Al Capone?
There was a lot of talk about polling on this program. I think it’s good to not confuse the different types of polling, contest polling, exit polling and policy polling. The latter, policy polling, is key to understanding the real chances that the Green Party (or one of the other progressive parties, the Green is best situated with ballot access) could have now that the vacuum in the vacuum driven system is so apparent. If you look at policy polling on a wide variety of issues, you realize that the Green Party is much more in tune with the populace than either major party. And, in democracy, majority rules, right?
The vast majority of democratic votes are there for the chance of winning or the odds. When they realize that they can’t win ANYWAY, that realization frees up tens of millions of votes that were tied up in strategic voting because, when you know your strategic vote can’t win, then it’s NOT ACTUALLY STRATEGIC.
The fact that 3rd parties generally score low in first-past-the-post systems is BECAUSE people believe that the 2nd party can win. When they no longer believe that, then the force that has been sucking up potential 3rd party votes is gone.
So I would give the Green Party a much better chance of being the next Phoenix to rise out of the ashes than a New Democratic Party which would be impossible due to the corruption of the old one which we all recognize. “Hey! Let’s take over the Mafia and make it a kinder gentler Mafia!”
As far as the funding issue, yes, they don’t have billions, and, considering that everyone hates the influence of money in politics, that could be seen as a plus. Remember, one of the historic things about the 2016 Presidential race was that the loser vastly outspent the winner.
P. S., Rudolf Butch Ware knew all along that Harris would lose big, He said so in practically every speech.
A day of disaster “a day that will live in infamy”!
FDR’s idiom referring to Japan’s opening salvo against America, December 7th 1941.
November 6th 2024, Donald Trump’s ominous, taunting victory statement, in code; that only he and his conspiring confederates are privy to: “We made history for a reason tonight, and the reason is going to be just that”!
The authoritarian institution of control is now fully established – no holds barred; government tyranny is now permissible out in the open.
Donald Trump’s reelection to the office of the U.S. presidency is the opening salvo in the new war against the American populace – the 95% of the people currently, who are not plutocratic part-owner operators of this corrupt corporate system!
His five million-plus vote edge surely paints a picture of the disaster that lies ahead for the unwitting exceptionalist American ideology!
“Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results” has quite apparently, not yet penetrated the societal ‘collective unconscious’ – a metaphysical concept that suggests an underlying essence that connects all beings and becoming in the universe; the idea that all beings are interconnected and share a pool of wisdom that’s beyond our conscious awareness.
Is the aforementioned supposition any more unreasonable than the paragraphs opening quote?
The catastrophic tragedy, which occurred in Palestine on October 7th 2023, was the spark it took, which began the reignition process of reconnecting this universal consciousness ‘pool of wisdom’ that lies deep within the soul of all of humanity.
This was a very interesting discussion. Thank you for doing this panel on such an important timeline! As an old woman, 77, I want to express my appreciation for the input of the two younger participants. It was very exhilarating! This is an important perspective that needs to be encouraged and expanded on for our future!
re: Germany
Garland Nixon was correct last night: Scholz fired his finance minister a couple of hours ago.
Now Bundestag must decide on January 15th.
If the government does end we have elections.
Trump’s regime will be infested with Zio scum. It’s imperative over the next few years that we stop dead in its tracks any drive for war against Iran on behalf of the racist paranoid arrogant and sadistic Israeli state.
If Dems would’ve pushed (really pushed) for Med4All, they win last night. Also, if they don’t fritter away hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars on racist Israel and fascist Russophobic Ukraine, they win last night. The Dems really haven’t delivered anything substantive to the people since Medicare, in 1966!
The goal now is to fight like hell to make damn sure the Trump regime doesn’t send young men in the heartland off to die in some Middle Eastern desert for the Zionist supremacists as it looks like rabidly pro-Israel partisans will be stocked full in his impending admin.
Medicare came out of Huey Long style econ-populism (LBJ, in some respects idolized Huey), which is almost always a winner. Once you start going woke with dead end gonadal ID politics that neglects everyday common working citizens and then on top of it genuflect to pro war blood lusters, you’re in jeopardy of losing.
No way in the world does a Huey Long style populist lose last night as he would have been railing non-stop over the past year or so against wasting one nickel on foreign wars and he would’ve fought like a Kangal dog for Med4All.
Simple.
None of this is quantum physics. Sure winners are generally twofold: hardcore economic populism for the hundreds of millions of working citizens and genuine anti-war, guns for butter, proposals.
Bernard Sanders was on his way to some of this but then shot himself in the foot c. 2019 when he went on live national television during a debate and promised Med4All to illegal immigrants!
Dems have no one to blame but themselves for last night’s pathetic performance. The American people are sick and tired of inflation, war expenses, and dead end ID politics.
Couldn’t agree with you more ,Drew.Thanks for the detailed analysis.Glenn Greenwald “System Update” show over on Rumble discusses and analyzes quite a few graphs describing and comparing different aspects of the trump vs.harris vote .He repeatedly points at how doggedly the establishment,corporate media and harris campaign catered to upper class ,elitest, establishment concerns and tastes rather than working class bread and butter ones.He is full of dry scorn for how the dems ,incapable of introspection or self- criticism,are driven to blame defeat on the american trump voter.Especially the white non college educated one. TheTrump Latino voters disti guish themselves as a very special conumdrum,.The show features the investigative journalist,Lee Fung,who advises dems to abandon identity politics.I recommend this show because it basically hits upon and elaborates all of your excellant points .Of course your execution is more succint and colorful!
Thank you for the kind words.
I love Greenwald’s work. I visit his Twitter pages multiple times every day. I’ll have to check out the specific show you’re referring to. I know his Twitter pages show bits of clips and summarize various shows he does constantly, and they have touched on what you’re addressing here. Take care.